Parsing Even The Rain: Likely Associations Between Climate Change and Contentious Politics in Cochabamba, Bolivia

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In this research proposal, Adam Zemans probe the intricate links between environmental change and social conflict in a study focused on Cochabamba, Bolivia. By analyzing precipitation data and newspaper archives from 2000 and 2015, the research investigates how water scarcity might trigger political unrest, using the 2000 Water War as a critical case study.

The investigation tests two key hypotheses: first, that significant precipitation deficits correlate with local contentious political events, and second, that these events align with existing theories of environmental scarcity. Drawing on interdisciplinary research from climate science and social theory, the study examines five potential mechanisms connecting water shortages to social conflict.

With Bolivia projected to be among the most climate-vulnerable countries, this research provides a crucial framework for understanding how environmental pressures can transform into social and political tensions, potentially informing future conflict prevention strategies.